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CWA # 1270, 7 April 2024
The World This Week
75 Years of NATO

  GP Team

The World This Week #259, Vol. 6, No.13
07 April 2024

75 YEARS OF NATO
Padmashree Anandhan
 
What happened?
On 04 April, NATO turned 75, becoming the oldest military alliance. On the same day, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Secretary General marking 75 years of NATO, stated that the US and Europe are “stronger and safer together.” He said: “I don't believe in America alone just as I don't believe in Europe alone.”

Marking the 75 years of NATO, the US President, Joe Biden released a statement mentioning how NATO is “larger, stronger, and more determined than ever before.” He added: “Over the past three years, our NATO Allies have increased their own annual defense spending by almost $80 billion. As our adversaries have plotted to break our remarkable unity, our democracies have stood unwavering.” Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius spoke on the challenge ahead for Germany: “The challenge of resetting the Bundeswehr for a new and old challenge that of defending the country and the alliance.”

What is the background?
First, the formation of NATO in 1949, and its expansion since 1999. Established in 1949, its first secretary general Baron Hastings Ismay said its purpose was: “to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” Beginning with 12 members, it has expanded to 32 stands sturdy for countries wanting to be part of the alliance. The first round of expansion began 25 years ago on 25 March 1999, toward the east with Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland joining NATO. Since then, it has continued to spread through the Baltic and Eastern Europe (2004: Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) to northern Europe – Finland (2023) and Sweden (2024).

Russia’s blockade in the west and east Germany and the US entry became the starting point for the NATO alliance. NATO was formed to control the expanding Soviet sphere of influence and to serve as a military insurance to the Western European countries to achieve a larger component of peace in the region. Through the 75 years, the organisation continued to engage and adhere to collective security and deterrence. The principles and objectives in which the alliance was formed stand relevant today as the threat to European security exists through Russia. Due to this very threat, the formation of a military alliance gained significance (Article 5: an attack on a NATO member is considered an attack on all) as it has helped deter the war in Ukraine from expanding.

Second, the hits and misses of NATO during the last 75 years. The critical purpose of the NATO establishment was to contain the Soviet Union, which was achieved primarily with the fall of the USSR. The US contribution to NATO’s defence expenditure share increased from 59 to nearly 64 per cent out of USD 471 billion and USD 721 billion between 1999 and 2004. Alongside the military boost, geographic enlargement took place with the inclusion of 10 European countries from the Baltic and Eastern Europe, strengthening the alliance. It reached its peak in the last two decades, expanding to 32 member countries in southern and northern Europe (except the Balkans) but with an asymmetric defence contribution from the US. The alliance grew large geographically with increasing members but there was no equivalent share of the military matching the numbers. There was also a simultaneous degrading of relations with Russia after the 2008 announcement on providing scope for Georgia and Ukraine's membership in NATO, triggering war in Georgia, the Crimean annexation and the prolonged war of Ukraine. These have been the major misses, revealing the alliance's dependency on the US military, the gap in the share of military expenditure across the members and the failure of the NATO-Russia Founding Act.

Third, questions over cohesion. Since the NATO enlargement in the 1990s to include the Eastern European countries, there has been an increasing divide between the core Western and peripheral Eastern allies. Not until the 2016 Summit in Warsaw was there a special focus to securitise the eastern periphery of NATO following the Russian annexation of Crimea. Only after 2016, the heads of the NATO allies agree to launch NATO’s forward presence in the northeast and southeast. Turkey and Hungary have attempted to push their national interest or bargain for Russia due to their long-standing relations over the alliance’s progress. Across the Atlantic, the challenge posed by the Republicans in the US Congress tests the cohesion as all European members are now expected to raise their equal share of military expenditure to the NATO’s target of two per cent.

Fourth, the Trump challenge for NATO. In February 2024, former US President Donald Trump's warning about the US quitting NATO is a challenge. Marching into the 75th year, Trump’s statement echoed how European allies in NATO have over-depended on the US for its military expenditure. Since 1949, the US has continued to be a host of major share of defence expenditure with more than 60 per cent. Expect France, Italy, the UK and Germany, no other European allies have stepped up their contribution to NATO’s arsenal. The unappealing factor was countries yet not meeting the NATO threshold (Two per cent of their GDP to defence expenditure) despite the war situation.  

Fifth, new challenges. Achieving the larger peace in Europe may have been possible for Western Europe due to a stronger military presence while the eastern flank faces the Russian threat and many Eastern European countries still struggle to find their entry into NATO. The war in Ukraine has triggered the debate to fasten the inclusion of the countries in the queue but amid an imbalance over contribution towards NATO’s defence, new memberships are expected to wait further. Lastly, after the Trump stir, the share of military expenditure by Europe will evolve as another challenge.

What does this mean?
First, NATO’s success in expansion and its challenge. After the disintegration of the USSR, the continuity of NATO was objected to by Russia.  The eastern challenge continues to remain. The recent additions of Finland and Sweden into NATO were one of the quickest. This was because of the geography combined military and high-end technology components which were advantageous for NATO.
In the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, or Georgia and Ukraine who are next in the line may not be a benefit but rather a spending for NATO. If it is Georgia and Ukraine, it is an additional sensitivity due to Russia’s threat and extra work to ensure their political and economic systems meet the NATO conditions. Unless there is a peace settlement with Russia, Ukraine and Georgia will be a no-go area for NATO as it places the existing members under Russian threat.

TWTW Regional Round-ups
News from around the World
Akriti Sharma, Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Shamini Velayutham, Akhil Ajith, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Sanjay Manivannan, Navinan GV, Alka Bala and Nuha Aamina.

CHINA THIS WEEK  
China: A level playing field for American companies and workers in China, says US Treasury Secretary
On 05 April, during her five-day visit to China, the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for a level playing field for American companies and workers. While speaking to Wang Weizhong, the governor of Guangdong province, Yellen mentioned the need for open and direct communication on areas of disagreement, including the issue of China’s industrial overcapacity and its global spillovers. Before meeting senior Chinese officials, Yellen took input from American, European, and Japanese business representatives to hear their concerns. Quoting a survey from the American Chamber of Commerce, Yellen said that a third of American firms in China say they have experienced unfair treatment compared to local competitors by imposing barriers to access domestic markets and coercive actions against the firms. Experts note Yellens’ push for fair competition in new technology sectors such as green energy and EVs with adequate access for American companies.

China: Organizes International Import Expo event to boost investor's confidence
On 04 April, Xinhua reported of China International Import Expo (CIIE) event being held in southwest China's Chongqing Municipality from 01 to 03 April to boost foreign investors' confidence in the country’s domestic market. The event’s theme focused on “To Boost Dual Circulation by Introducing More Foreign Investment” and aimed to attract prominent companies and representatives from multinationals and investment promotion agencies. Senior Vice President of Qualcomm Qian Kun said that the company aims to strengthen its collaboration with Chongqing in the areas of 5G and terminal side AI. Xinhua notes that Qualcomm’s growing interest reflects foreign companies' desire to explore Western China’s markets. According to government statistics, there has been an increase of 30.49 per cent in the creation of new foreign companies in Chongqing in 2023. Similarly, it has been found in Shaanxi Province in northwest China. Experts like Takeo Keizo and Tino Zeiske note China’s huge market potential, especially in western China, offering huge investment opportunities for foreign companies. This is followed by the government’s increased focus on developing new quality productive forces to attract foreign capital in other parts of the country.

China: Xi Jinping and Joe Biden discuss issues and avenues of cooperation on call
On 02 April, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden engaged in a telephone conversation, aiming to subdue the tension between the two countries. They discussed multiple avenues of cooperation and shared vision to combat Climate Change. On Taiwan, Biden expressed his support for Taiwan while Xi called US involvement as the “Red Line.” Xi called those sanctions imposed by the US an “endless stream of measures to suppress China's economy, trade, science and technology.” He said that if the US aims to deter their right to develop, China will not sit idly. Xi again stated that US support for Taiwan is not “risk reduction” but “risk escalation.” Biden also questioned the Chinese support for Russia, their industrial base, trade policies and national security.

China: Yunnan province tightens restrictions for Ramadan
On 02 April, according to a commentary in VOA, restrictions were imposed in China on the sidelines of the Ramadan festival from 10 March to 09 April. The Yuxi Municipal government in southwestern Yunnan Province issued an emergency notice for the party committees, governments, and education departments at all levels to comprehensively investigate and strictly prohibit Muslim members of the Communist Party of China (CCP) and minors from participating in religious activities such as fasting. Lin mentions that the CCP desires to maintain political discipline among the party members. According to Lin, the notice emphasized separating education and religion to participate in religious activities with severe punishment threats. He also reports the local government tightening the restrictions with the onset of Ramadan. Ruslan Yusupov, a Society for the Humanities fellow at Cornell University, said that before Xi’s arrival, ethnic customs were allowed even for the CCP members, and with Xi’s tenure, there has been increased government control and suppression of religions using unofficial measures.
 
EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC THIS WEEK
North Korea: “Children in North Korea face egregious human rights violations,” says Seoul envoy to the UN
On 03 April, South Korean Ambassador to the UN Hwang Joon-kook said children in North Korea face grave human rights abuses, including receiving the death penalty for distributing South Korean dramas. During the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) briefing on Children and Armed Conflict, Hwang said children in North Korea face “egregious human rights violations” despite North Korea being a signatory country to the Convention on the Rights of the Child. He also mentioned the collective punishments given to their family members and the widespread use of child labour. He added North Korea faces a severe humanitarian crisis as it spends most of its resources on nuclear and ballistic missile programs and luxury items. He noted, “17 per cent of children in the DPRK are reported to suffer from stunted growth due to malnourishment.”
 
Taiwan: Taiwan: Minor hiccup in the semiconductor supply chain after the earthquake
On 03 April, The Straits Times reported on the disruption of the semiconductor supply chain after Taiwan was hit by an earthquake. The Chipmakers had to halt the operation of TSMC and UMC to check and inspect the facilities. While most of the firms were not close to the earthquake epicentre, many decided to evacuate their employee and shut down their facilities. TMSC: “To ensure the safety of personnel, some fabs were evacuated according to company procedure,” and “Mitigating the impacts of the earthquake necessitates careful measures and time to restore production and uphold quality standards, presenting additional implications and obstacles.” Barclays analysts believe that this could have a minor short-term hiccup in the manufacturing of the semiconductors as some parts of it need to operate seamlessly 24/7 for several weeks.

South Korea: South Korea: Reform Korea Party grows in popularity over the People Power Party
On 04 April, The Straits Times reported on the growing popularity of former justice minister Cho Kuk. An increasing number of the South Korean population are in support of the once disgraced politician facing jail term. Cho is part of the Reform Korea Party and has been fiercely promoting the anti-government narrative. This comes as South Korean President Yoon-Suk-Yeol’s approval rating is at an all-time low with the scandals, rising inflation and the ongoing doctor's strikes. Cho’s rally has been largely anti-Yoon where he said: “I am going to make President Yoon first a lame duck, then a dead duck.” The political analysts believe that Cho’s party can garner 30 per cent of the vote and therefore will be able to get 15 seats in the parliament, this would prevent PPP from forming a majority government for the first time since 2016.

South Korea: Hyundai announces biggest Initial public offering
On 03 April, South Korean company HD Hyundai Group has envisioned raising USD 550 billion for an initial public offering (IPO) for the South Korean stock market. They would allocate 8.9 million shares which is 20 per cent to the investors. Hyundai CEO Kidong Lee said: “We are expected to benefit from the transition toward an environmentally friendly market,” and “We have actively prepared for coping with rising demand for ships fuelled, with cleaner alternatives.” The IPO remained subdued for the past two years but after this HD Hyundai will remain the largest shareholder with a 55 per cent stake. The HD Hyundai conglomerate is the company that offers services to container ships and other LNG carriers. They also repair and maintain systems while providing them with a navigation system that gives energy-saving data.

South Korea: US urges Seoul to tighten its chip exports to China
On 02 April, Bloomberg reported that the US is urging South Korea to toughen up its Chip export control to China. They have asked South Korea to adopt a similar sanction as that of the US and implement it to thwart Chinese ambitions. They want South Korea to restrict the flow of equipment and technologies that are vital in making chips. The South Korean side is still discussing it as they see China as a key trading partner. China remains the largest trading partner with South Korea and this can affect big conglomerates like Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said: “We hope that the ROK will make the right judgments and independent decisions.”

SOUTH EAST ASIA
Thailand: Signs outer space pact with China
On 05 April, according to the Chinese Space Agency, Thailand and China signed a pact “to co-operate on the peaceful use of outer space and international lunar research stations”. The partnering countries also plan to carry out joint working groups on “space exploration and applications, encompassing data exchanges and personnel training”. 
 
Indonesia: Prabowo to be prudent in fiscal management
On 04 April, Reuters reported that according to rating agencies the policy promises of Prabowo Subianto, president-elect of Indonesia, are expensive and may undermine Indonesia’s reputation for maintaining fiscal discipline. Airlangga Harataro, chairman of the Golkar party, which is a member of the coalition backing Prabowo stated that the law would be followed, “public debt cannot exceed 60% (of GDP), (annual budget) deficit ceiling at 3% (of GDP)”. Airlangga added that the government’s guidance in the fiscal gap for the following financial year is between 2.48 per cent to 2.8 per cent of GDP. 
 
Indonesia: Japan to improve cooperation
On 03 April, in a meeting with Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister of Japan, Prabowo Subianto, president-elect, said, "We have built a cooperative relationship and going forward I would like to strengthen that”. After the meeting, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan said, Kishida told Prabowo that Japan sought to grow its cooperation with Indonesia to strengthen international rules. 
 
Malaysia: Convicted prime minister bids to serve under house arrest
On 03 April, former Prime Minister Najib Razik, who was convicted for being involved in the 1MDB scandal, has filed for judicial review. Former Malaysian king Al-Sultan Abdullah Ahmad Shah, who chaired the pardons board back in February granted Najib’s sentence to be halved to six years from a twelve-year jail sentence. On 01 April, an application to the Malay High Court outlined that Najib had received an “addendum order” from the King and the board which allows him to serve six years in house arrest, as per the filings on the court’s website. The filings further stated that Najib is pressing the government to confirm the existence of a royal order and to execute it if it does. However, there was no response from the office of the attorney general who is also a member of the pardons board. 
 
Malaysia: Flights from China to Kuala Lumpur
On 02 April, The South China Morning Post reported that Malaysia will receive over “5 million tourists from China” as the “frequency of flights” is currently “more than 247 flights weekly”, according to Tourism Malaysia Director General P Manoharan. He stated that last year Malaysia saw 1.47 million tourists come in from China. The first Sichuan Arlines flight and China Southern Airlines flight landed in Kuala Lumpur on 31 March and 01 April, respectively. Manoharan added that the Chinese airlines were also interested in establishing direct flights to cities such as Penang, Johor Bahru and Kuching. This development aligns with the ministry’s goal to increase direct flights under the Visit Malaysia Year 2026 initiative. 
 
SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
Nepal: Adopts BIMSTEC Charter
On 04 April, Nepal’s House of Representatives discussed the BIMSTEC charter and adopted it. The discussion focussed on how Nepal can benefit from it. Rashtriya Swatantra Party member reported by The Kathmandu Post said: “It took Bimstec 25 years to finalize its charter. It is gradually being activated. If we can expedite the Bimstec process, Nepal will reap benefits.” However, while discussing, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Kaji Shrestha declined to accept the replacement of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

Nepal: Deputy Prime Minister proposes new corridors to China
On 01 April, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Kaji Shrestha returned after his nine-day visit to China. He discussed with the Chinese counterparts regarding building Nepal-China economic and development corridors in three Chinese provinces Tibet, Sichuan and Chongqing. Beijing has tasked these provinces with engaging, promoting, and expanding relations with Nepal as part of China's "peripheral diplomacy." Nepal has recently received a series of back-to-back senior officials visits from these regions, and when Nepali leaders visit China, their first stops are Tibet, Sichuan, and Chongqing. He said: “The focus of my visit was economic diplomacy. Nepal has been thinking about this new concept [the idea of corridors] after China introduced the Trans Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network (THMDCN), which comprises economic and connectivity corridors to be developed under the Belt and Road Initiative.”

South Asia: World Bank forecasts growth for the region
On 02 April, the World Bank in its “South Asia Development Update” report said that the Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.5 per cent in 2024, which revised its previous predictions for the same year by 1.2 per cent. South Asia's growth is predicted to be high at 6.0 per cent in 2024, driven primarily by robust development in India and recoveries in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. South Asia is expected to remain the fastest-growing economy in the region for the next two years, according to the report with 6.1 per cent growth projected in 2025. The bank in the report said, "In India, which accounts for the bulk of the region's economy, output growth is expected to reach 7.5 per cent in FY23/24 before returning to 6.6 per cent over the medium term, with activity in services and industry expected to remain robust." Production in Bangladesh is predicted to expand by 5.7 per cent in fiscal year 24/25, despite high inflation and trade and foreign exchange restrictions that limit economic activity.  Following a recession in FY22/23, Pakistan's GDP is predicted to expand by 2.3 per cent in FY24/25 as business confidence rises. In Sri Lanka, output growth is predicted to accelerate to 2.5 per cent by 2025, with modest gains in reserves, remittances, and tourism. According to the World Bank, economic activity in India increased by 8.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the previous year. "The expansion was supported by rapid increases in investment and government consumption. More recent survey data point to continued strong performance," it stated. In February, India's composite purchasing managers index (PMI) was 60.6, significantly higher than the global average of 52.1. According to the research, inflation in India has maintained within the Reserve Bank of India's 2-6 per cent target range after a surge in mid-2023, with the policy rate being steady since February 2023. World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia, Franziska Ohnsorge, said "South Asia is failing right now to fully capitalize on its demographic dividend. This is a missed opportunity."

Maldives: Indian troops to leave in May
On 03 April, The Times of India reported that Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu has announced that Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives will be withdrawn within the current month, with the entire process expected to be completed by May 10. This decision follows a high-level meeting in New Delhi on February 2, where India agreed to replace its military personnel operating the three aviation platforms in the Maldives by May 10. The first batch of approximately 25 Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives to operate a helicopter gifted by India left the island nation in March, handing over the operations to an Indian civilian crew, and adhering to the agreed-upon deadline of March 10. Previously, 88 Indian military personnel were operating two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft in the Maldives, providing humanitarian and medical evacuation services in the country.

Bhutan: Renewing regional cooperation
On 30 March, Kuensel reported that Bhutan, India, and Bangladesh are making high-profile diplomatic gestures, signalling a new era of regionalism that is moving away from words and towards actions. The visits of Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were both significant and mutually beneficial. Bhutan-India relations are still defined by their long history of mutual trust and confidence. The recent diplomatic visits resulted in cooperation and support in vital sectors such as health, education, trade and commerce, transportation, and connectivity between Bhutan and India, as well as Bhutan and Bangladesh. The idea of a triangular alliance between India, Bhutan and Bangladesh led to the formation of the collective body SAARC.

CENTRAL ASIA & THE CAUCASUS THIS WEEK
Armenia: US remains steadfast in helping Armenia, says Blinken
On 05 April, the three-way meeting between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was mentioned by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. In his post on X, Blinken said: “The US remains steadfast in helping Armenia strengthen its democracy and achieve economic prosperity and resilience through regional integration. In a meeting with Armenian and EU leaders, I announced our commitment to provide over $65 million towards this effort.”

Armenia: Azerbaijan opens fire
On 05 April, according to the Ministry of Defence of Armenia, the Azerbaijani armed forces began fire from small arms at Armenian combat positions in Chinari village (Tavush Province) in Verin Shorzha (Gegharkunik Province). Concurrently, the Republic of Armenia's Ministry of Defense makes it clear that the statement released by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, which asserts that on 05 April, Armenian Armed Forces units opened fire toward Azerbaijani positions situated in the northeastern section of the border, is false.

Azerbaijan: President meets DRC’s President Denis
On 04 April, while visiting Azerbaijan, President Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) expressed interest in developing both political and economic cooperation with President Ilham Aliyev. The DRC is keen to deepen its relationship with Azerbaijan. He said: “We have abundant water sources and the sun that shines all year round. We can use this potential and your great experience in this field for the development of our agriculture.” Aliyev conveyed to his counterpart in Congo his interest in implementing political cooperation between the two nations as well as the commerce, energy, and agriculture sectors. He said: “I do hope that, as a result of the implementation of the agreements reached, a positive dynamic will emerge in our trade after the visit. We have had a wide exchange of views on cooperation in energy and agriculture, and here too, there is no difference of opinion. We look forward to working together on COP29.”

MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
Israel: Direct negotiations should be made for UN membership, says Matthew Miller
On 02 April, the head of the Israeli army claimed that Israel wants “movement” in the negotiations with the captives, while Hamas claims that Israel is still “evading” the group's demands, which include a truce, food, and the ability for residents of Gaza to return to their homes. Separately, on 03 April, the US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller stated that “direct negotiations” and “not at the United Nations” should be used to settle the issue of Palestinian statehood in answer to a query regarding the Palestinian Authority's drive for a vote on full UN membership.

Saudi Arabia: 50 per cent reduction in the traffic fines for violation
On 04 April, a 50 per cent reduction in the total amount of traffic fines for violations committed before 18 April 2024 has been announced by the Saudi Ministry of Interior. In collaboration with the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority (SDAIA) and the Ministry of Finance, the initiative seeks to incentivize infringers to pay their fines within six months of the program's launch, either in full or in part, and without engaging in any safety-related activities. The Ministry made it clear that Article 75 of the Traffic Law would be applicable to infractions that happened after the adoption of this lowering.

Lebanon: Interim PM denies corruption allegation
On 04 April, two anti-corruption organizations filed a complaint in France, and since then, Lebanon's billionaire caretaker prime minister has refuted all accusations of money laundering. The Collective of Victims of Fraudulent and Criminal Practices and a French anti-corruption non-governmental organization formally filed a complaint against Najib Mikati with France's National Financial Prosecutor's office on April 02. The company claimed to have alerted French prosecutors of Mikati's significant asset accumulation in France" under certain circumstances. The accusation also raises concerns about where the money came from and how it entered the French banking system.
 
Syria: Israel targets Iranian consulate 
On 01 April, an Israeli airstrike targeted the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus killing two Iranian generals and five officers. Iran and Syria condemned the attack. Syria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Faisal Mekdad, said that the “heinous terrorist attack” killed innocent people. He stated: “We strongly condemn this atrocious terrorist attack that targeted the Iranian consulate building in Damascus and killed innocents.” Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, called the strike a “violation of all international obligations and conventions and blamed the consequences of this action on the Zionist regime.” The Iranian militant group, Hezbollah, stated: “This crime will not pass without the enemy receiving punishment and revenge.” On 3 April, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council met to decide on a “required response” to the strike. At the council meeting, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: “We will make them regretful about the crime and similar acts.”

Yemen: US intercepts Houthi drones in the Red Sea
On 31 March, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that its forces destroyed two drones targeting Yemen and the Red Sea. The drones targeted naval ships of US allies and international commercial vessels. Referring to the recent confrontation with Houthi rebels, CENTCON stated: “These actions are necessary to protect our forces, ensure freedom of navigation, and make international waters safer and more secure for US, coalition, and merchant vessels.” 
 
AFRICA THIS WEEK
Somalia: Ethiopian ambassador expelled
On 04 April, Somalia expelled the Ethiopian ambassador to the country and ordered the closure of consulates. It additionally recalled the ambassador to Ethiopia. The expulsion came after a rise in tensions between the two following Ethiopia’s port deal with self-declared Somaliland in January. Somalia considers Somaliland as part of its territory and accused Ethiopia of infringing on its “sovereignty and internal affairs.” Somalia described the deal as an act of “aggression” and an "impediment to… peace and stability.”

Togo: Delay in elections amidst constitutional reform
On 04 April, BBC reported on Togo announcing the delay in the parliamentary and regional elections over the controversial constitutional reform. According to the reform which was approved the previous week, the country replaced the presidential system with a parliamentary one. The opposition parties rejected the reform citing that it would let President Faure Gnassingbé stay in power. On 3 April, the presidential office announced the postponement of the elections which were initially scheduled for 20 April. The election delay was announced after President Gnassingbé returned the bill for a second reading amidst widespread criticism.

Uganda: Constitutional Court rejects appeal against anti-LGBTQ law
On 03 April, Uganda’s Constitutional Court rejected an appeal seeking to annul the anti-LGBTQ law. The court ruled that a few sections of the law were “inconsistent with the right to health, privacy and freedom of religion,” but did not suspend the law. Uganda’s deputy chief justice and head of the court, Richard Buteera, stated: “We decline to nullify the Anti-Homosexuality Act 2023 in its entirety, neither will we grant a permanent injunction against its enforcement.” Uganda-based Human Rights Awareness and Promotion Forum said that the decision “unfortunately will fuel human rights violations” against the LGBTQ community in the country. Uganda’s Anti-Homosexuality Act 2023 imposes a lifetime in prison for same-sex relations and describes “aggravated homosexuality” as an offence punishable by death.
 
Democratic Republic of Congo: President appoints first female Prime Minister 
On 02 April, President Felix Tshisekedi appointed Judith Suminwa Tuluka as the first female Prime Minister of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Tuluka, previously the Minister of Planning, succeeded Jean Michel Sama Lukonde following Tshisekedi's reelection in December 2023.

Egypt: A third term for President Sisi
On 02 April, Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt is due to take office for a third consecutive six-year term after winning elections in December securing 89.9 per cent of the vote. Sisi took office in 2014 after a military coup overthrew his Islamist predecessor Mohammed Morsi.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
Europe: European Commission to investigate solar panel manufactures of China in Romania
On 03 April, the European Commission launched an investigation into China’s solar panel manufacturers who are suspected of “undercutting local suppliers.” A 110-megawatt solar farm in Romania called Enevo Group which comes under the EU modernization fund is on suspect of receiving subsidies from China, breaching EU’s policy of fair competition. According to EUs Internal Market Commissioner, Thierry Breton, the investigation aims to secure Europe’s economic security and competitiveness by making companies follow the single market regulations in a competitive and fair manner. Along with the Romanian farm, Longi Green Energy Technology owned by China and subsidised by Germany has also come under enquiry. In the investigation, the Commission will examine the economic operators to find if there was any benefit drawn to attain the public contracts in the EU. The market regulations of the EU mandate the companies to notify the Commission if their tender value goes up more than EUR 250 million and had also received foreign contribution close to EUR four million in last three years.
 
Turkey: Opposition Mayor Imamgolu secures elections in Istanbul and Ankara
On 01 April, according to Deutsche Welle, Mayor Ekrem Imamgolu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) won the Municipal elections against Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). According to Anadolu, the state news agency, CHP secured victory in the capital city of Ankara and other major cities such as Izmir and Antalya. According to Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabanci University remarked this election was “The biggest election defeat of Erdogan's career.” According to the preliminary election results, the CHP was reported to be ahead of its rival AKP in 36 provinces out of 81. CHP accumulated 37.32 per cent of the votes whereas AKP had 35.78 per cent. Post elections defeat, Erdogan remarked: “We will honestly assess the results of the elections ... and courageously exercise self-criticism.” Earlier, 70-year-old Erdogan had stated that this election would be his last. Erdogan has been the Prime Minister since 2003 and held the Presidential post in 2014.

Hungary: Signs a gas deal with Turkey, opening an alternative route for Russian gas
On 02 April, according to Politico, Hungary’s new gas agreement with Turkey becomes functional which would bring in 275 million cubic meters of natural gas in a week. Signed between Turkish state company BOTAŞ and Hungary’s MVM CEEnergy in August 2023, the deal brings in the amount of natural gas in a week which is more than equivalent to the amount of natural gas used by Hungary households in a month. Seen as an attempt to strengthen the ties between Ankara and Budapest, Turkey also aims to be a “gas hub” for Europe. Turkey also supplies Bulgaria with 1.85 billion cubic meters of gas per year. However, concerns are expressed over the Turkish import of gas from Russia as the former has refused to impose Western sanctions on Moscow and had promised to increase their bilateral trade. Although Hungary has imposed stricter sanctions on Russia, it has increased its energy ties with Moscow. Rosatom is helping Hungary build a new nuclear power station in Paks in Southern Hungary, whereas Turkey and Rosatom are both involved in the building of the Akkuyu nuclear plant.
 
AMERICAS THIS WEEK
Ecuador: Mexico’s Ambassador becomes "persona non grata”
On 04 April, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ecuador asks Mexico’s Ambassador, Raquel Serur Smeke to leave the country soon after declaring her as "persona non grata". By citing "unfortunate" comments made by the Mexican president about the violent elections last year. On 3 April, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador commented on last year’s presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio’s assassination and connected it to recent violence in Mexico's current election season, in which numerous local candidates were killed. Ecuador's foreign ministry, in its statement, mentioned the country is still mourning the death of Villavicencio and the government is committed to the principle of non-intervention of other country's internal matters.

Colombia: World Bank approves USD 750 million loan for climate change
On 02 April, the World Bank approved a loan of USD 750 million to overcome climate change by encouraging renewable energy efforts and reducing carbon emissions. The loan aims to boost the development of solar and offshore wind energy and green hydrogen and also to bolster electric and multimodal transport. The bank stated, "It is important for Colombia to take up the transition toward a more resilient economy, with low carbon emissions and a focus on sustainable management of natural resources." This is the second loan for a South American country from the World Bank focusing on climate change, following the USD 1 billion loan in December 2022.

Peru: President evades latest impeachment motion
On 04 April, Peruvian President Dina Boluarte evaded her latest attempt to impeach her over the Rolex and jewellery probe. The lawyers rejected the impeachment motion twice. The first was rejected in a 49-33 vote with 12 abstentions, and the second by an even larger majority of 59-32, with 11 abstentions. Efforts to impeach leaders are becoming more prevalent in the Latin American nation. The Peruvian Constitution allows for impeachment proceedings based on a vague "moral incapacity" provision that does not require proof of legal crime. Impeachment calls for only 87 affirmative votes in the 130-member chamber.

The US: Judge rejects Trump’s attempt to dismiss his case
On 04 April, the US District Judge, Aileen Cannon rejected Trump’s attempt to dismiss his two criminal cases. Trump claimed that the US law allowed him to retain highly sensitive information at his property, Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach, Florida, after he left office in 2021. He highlighted the Presidential Records Act, which allows past presidents to maintain personal records that are unrelated to their official duties. However, prosecutors argued he was not permitted to keep secret anything crucial to US national security, even if he considered the records personal. Separately, the judge supervising the election meddling case in Georgia rejected Trump's claim that the indictment tries to criminalise political speech protected by the First Amendment. Prosecutors of Georgia accused Trump along with 18 others of joining the plot to “unlawfully change the outcome” of the 2020 election. Trump has pled not guilty to all charges. He has also accused authorities of engaging in a politically driven "witch hunt" to sabotage his 2024 presidential campaign. While the criminal indictments have failed to reduce Trump's popularity among his Make America Great Again (MAGA) supporters, experts warn a conviction in any of the cases might jeopardise his chances at the polls. However, it is unclear whether a ruling will be reached before the election, and Trump's campaign has attempted to prolong many of the legal proceedings.

The US: Biden condemns Florida’s abortion law as state vote nears
On 02 April, US President Joe Biden condemned a Florida Supreme Court decision, allowing a six-week ban on abortion. He criticized Republicans for limiting reproductive rights in Florida and other US states, a key election issue. The remark follows a series of verdicts by Florida's top court on 01 April, one of which upheld a ban on abortions beyond 15 weeks of pregnancy. However, the same ruling is expected to pave the way for the six-week ban to take effect as well. In April 2023, the Florida State Legislature passed the six-week ban to replace the 15-week ban. Before the 15-week ban, Florida allowed abortions in the second trimester of pregnancy, making it a popular destination for people seeking the operation from neighbouring states with stricter regulations.

THIS WEEK IN HISTORY
Remembering Genocide: 30 years after
Anu Maria Joeph

In the news
On 7 April, it would be 30 years of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, a massacre of 800,000 ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus by the ethnic Hutus over 100 days. On the day, Rwandan President Paul Kagame will light a remembrance flame at the Kigali Genocide Memorial.

The UN and the African Union (AU) would additionally join the commemoration. On 2 April, remembering the genocide, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated: “This year, we remind ourselves of genocide’s rancid root: hate. To those who would seek to divide us, we must deliver a clear, unequivocal and urgent message: never again.”

On 4 April, French President Emmanuel Macron, in a video message which is to be released on 7 April, stated: “France, which could have stopped the genocide with its western and African allies, did not have the will.”

Issues at large
First, a brief historical note on the genocide. In 1994, on 6 April, a day before the massacre began, a plane carrying Rwanda's Hutu President Juvenal Habyarimana was shot down, killing everyone on board. The extremists within the Hutus blamed the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF); the latter is a Tutsi-led rebel group which fought the Rwandan government during 1990-1993. Subsequently, the Hutu extremists began a slaughter campaign against the ethnic Tutsis. Neighbours and families killed each other using machetes and small arms. Tutsi women and girls were raped and kept as sex slaves; more than 15,000 women and girls were raped. The youth wing of the governing MRND party, Interahamwe, was converted into a militia to carry out the massacre. Through radios and newspapers, the Hutus spread the genocide propaganda under the phrase "weed out the cockroaches." The slaughter ended on 4 July 1994; the RPF with the support of the Ugandan army marched into the capital Kigali. Nearly two million Hutus fled to the Democratic Republic of Congo fearing revenge attacks.

Second, the limited international response. It was too late and when it happened it was too little. The UN Mission to Rwanda (UNAMIR) was deployed in October 1993 with a limited mandate to implement the Arusha Agreement; the agreement signed in August 1993, between the RPF and the Rwandan government, ended the conflict. The mission did little during the genocide and withdrew soon after the outbreak. Later, in November 1994, the UNSC established the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda in Arusha (in Tanzania) to prosecute the perpetrators. The Tribunal has indicted 93 people responsible for the genocide. In 1999, the UN acknowledged its failure in stopping the genocide. Outside the UN, there was little interest among the other big countries. The US, after its troops were killed in Somalia in 1993, was not interested in getting involved in another African conflict. France, an ally of the Hutu government, (France supported the Hutu-led government under Habyarimana who was fighting against the Tutsi-led RPF militia since 1990) evacuated its citizens and was accused of not doing enough to stop the violence. It was only in 2021, after 27 years, that French President Emmanuel Macron, for the first time, acknowledged its "overwhelming responsibility" for the genocide. 

Third, the generational trauma and a neverending post-genocide reconstruction. Two-thirds of the Rwandan population today are born after the genocide. Gacaca, a system of community courts within Rwanda was set up to achieve truth, justice and reconciliation. The gacaca courts adjudicated over 1.2 million cases. At present, Rwandan society does not talk about ethnicity anymore. The historic ethnic division between the Tutsi, Hutus and Twa is replaced by Ndi Umunyarwanda, meaning "I am Rwandan." Ndi Umunyarwanda has been a successful post-genocide social reconstruction to move on from the past, at least for the young generation. However, fear of a resurgence of ethnic tensions exists among the old generation. A wave of violence has been ongoing in eastern DRC bordering Rwanda with the involvement of several militant groups, including the Democratic Forces for the Liberation Rwanda (DFLR). DFLR is known to be the perpetrators of the genocide. Many fear that the extreme ideologies of the DFLR could surpass the progress made by the Ndi Umunyarwanda.

Fourth, lessons learned and not learned from the Rwandan genocide. The first UN initiative to prevent another genocide was the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in 2005. According to the R2P, all countries have the responsibility to protect people from genocide crimes by force, if required, with the authorisation of the UNSC. However, R2P is criticised for its non-binding character. The R2P was first tried in Libya in 2011 against the Gadaffi regime. Although the foreign intervention prevented genocide, the fall of Gadaffi and the subsequent civil war put the Western intentions behind the interventions under scrutiny. Now, the West is indifferent to intervention, especially in Africa. In 2020, an ethnic conflict broke out in Ethiopia's Tigray region between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian federal forces. The conflict killed more than 600,000 people. The international community remained silent while the violence continued. The situation repeated today in the Sudanese civil war and the war in Gaza. 

In perspective
The international community consider the Rwandan genocide of 1994 as a lesson that gathered a collective conscience against 'genocide.' 30 years into truth, justice and reconciliation, Rwanda is on the right path towards social reconstruction. However, concerns about resurging ethnic tension do persist. Meanwhile, the international community continue to discuss how an early action could have prevented the genocide. 

Although "never again" is a common narrative, collective mechanisms and actions to prevent genocides are a few. Moreover, countries waver to acknowledge the "g-word" which comes with a baggage of responsibilities. Countries settle for conflicts in Africa as low-intensity conflict leaving it to humanitarian agencies. After Rwanda, Darfur in Sudan, Rohingyas in Myanmar and Tigrayans in Ethiopia all were genocide victims which the international community failed to acknowledge and prevent. Until addressing the causes is prioritised above the consequences, "responsibility to protect (R2P)" would remain aspirational and "never again" would end up "yet again."

THIS WEEK IN HISTORY
Martin Luther King Jr assassination
Ramya B

On 4 April 1968, Dr Martin Luther King Jr, at the age of 39, was assassinated by a sniper attack. James Earl Ray, who reportedly fled after the attack, was captured in the United Kingdom and was convicted in 1969 after entering a guilty plea. The US Attorney General Janet Reno ordered a new investigation on 26 August 1998 due to sustained complaints of a conspiracy; the Department of Justice released a 150-page report in 2000, rejecting allegations that there was a conspiracy to assassinate King.

The Rise of Martin Luther King 
King was the foremost civil rights leader and an inspirational activist who stood for the core values of equality, nonviolence, and human rights for all Americans in the aftermath of the Second World War and the signing of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, reminding the world of the significance of securing universal voting rights and the abolition of segregation laws (separate but equal) of all forms. He stood faithful to his ideology of non-violent protests even when faced with the repeated occurrences of white supremacists, including an attack on his home in January 1957 and a stabbing injury in September 1958. He remarked: "The experience of these last few days has deepened my faith in the relevance of the spirit of nonviolence and peaceful social change."

Born into an educated African American family in 1929 with two generations of inspirational men and pastors, he graduated in law and medicine. He was a theologian and pastor who completed his doctorate in 1955. He had all available opportunities to lead a peaceful family life with his wife, children, and community but chose to become the champion of the vulnerable section of the USA.

Rosa Parks, secretary of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), of which Martin Luther King was an active member, was jailed in 1955 after refusing to give up her seat to a white passenger on a bus in Montgomery. Martin Luther King Jr became famous for coordinating a peaceful bus boycott in the deeply segregated city for 382 days. The Supreme Court of the US declared segregation in buses unconstitutional in 1956. Montgomery became an inspiration for the nationwide civil rights movement, and King Junior became a national trailblazer.

"I have a Dream": The legacy of Martin Lurher King Jr
After establishing the Southern Christian Leadership Conference (SCLC) in 1957, which aimed to provide educational opportunities for African Americans, Dr King journeyed more than six million miles and gave more than 1,500 speeches. He organized voter registration drives and represented the disadvantaged wherever an injustice, protest, or action was needed, including a massive protest in Birmingham, Alabama, one of America's most racially divided cities. His famous speech 'I have a dream' was delivered at one of Washington, DC's largest civil rights gatherings, and was listened to by 2.5 million people in 1963.

His leadership and civil rights movement resulted in US President Lyndon B Johnson passing the Civil Rights Act on 2 July 1964. The Civil Rights Act prohibited racial discrimination in employment and education and outlawed racial segregation in public places. Furthermore, the bill established a solid foundation for several other pieces of legislation—including the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which set strict rules for protecting the right of African Americans to vote—that have since been utilized to uphold equal rights for women and all minorities. He spent time in India studying Mahatma Gandhi's teachings and applying them to the American civil rights movement after receiving the Nobel Peace Prize. 
King's contributions to the civil rights struggle altered the global perception of African Americans. 

King came to represent change and optimism for rising against repression and speaking out against racial injustices in the face of violence, verbal abuse, and ridicule. He continues to remain an inspiration today through the words of his books and articles, including the well-known "Letter from Birmingham Jail," denouncing the abuses African Americans were subjected to at the time with a clarion call, "Injustice Anywhere is a Threat to Justice Everywhere." 

Today, we remember King as a legend who championed international human rights and fought for the equality and liberties of African Americans.

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